If for 49.000 infected people outcome was: 3.000 died and 46.000 recovered… whats the general probability of the worst outcome for someone who gets infected ?
he logic is … if I get infected I will be sick for some time and finally the disease will come to its end which can be only recovery or … well… the bad news,
By looking around I noticed that 90.000 people got infected just like me, but also I notice that disease has terminated in 49000 cases while the others (41000) are still fighting for their lives (being sick).
Then I look what happened to those 49000, what were the outcomes… as that is what is expecting me… die or survive. Then I calculate my survival chance by recovered/49.000 = 46000/49000=0,94=94% and conclude that there is 94% probability that I will fully recover, or 3000/49000=0,06=6% probability that I would not make it. So there is good reason to be optimistic, isn’t it?
If we put it like… finally 1 out of 16 infected will die, it does not sound that optimistic like: 94% will recover.